You obviously have seen the pop in GDP for this quarter and how it is being or not being received as it is broken down and analyzed. One of the most notable changes was the contribution from Motor Vehicle Output contributing 1.7% to the 3.5% growth number; thank you “cash for clunkers” (14.1 SAR August, 9.2 SAR September and estimated maybe 10 SAR for October). When this program strips-out in the 4th quarter, what will this number look like? As we move into the heating season in the US, the increase in the price of oil (from mid 40’s to now over $80 a barrel) could possibly help offset the negative effect of decline in Auto Sales but we shall see.

The bigger concern is the profit taking we are beginning to see and some early indication of softening in the credit markets. An early indicator is the Bank Loan Mutual funds and their NAV as this is a market that trades on private information under confidentially agreements with their large corporate borrowers. Their NAV reflects the direction of this information as either positive or negative. A very good indication of on the health of the large cap corporate market and their public data to come in one or two quarters .