Archive

Archive for September, 2009

Stock Timing Model Provides 33rd Buy Signal in Last 55 Years

September 8th, 2009

The cornerstone of the investment philosophy of Pring Turner Capital Group rests on our core beliefs of building wealth consistently while reducing portfolio risk. Over several decades and through many varied market conditions our disciplined approach, crafted with many layers of risk management, has allowed clients to meet their goals of achieving steady returns with low volatility.

As of August 1st, one of our proprietary intermediate timing models, used to determine our tactical asset allocations, confirmed its first buy signal since 2007, and 33rd buy signal since 1954.  The model uses a series of momentum indicators to indicate appropriate times to over-emphasize equities in portfolios. The historical performance of the S&P 500 when the model issues a buy signal indicates that stock prices should rise in the months ahead.

 120 Model Performace Updated *Performance Figures through August 31, 2009

 

In order to judge performance properly investors should not only ask, “What is your return performance?”–That is only half of the question. “How much risk did you take to generate that return?is a more important question. When the model is in effect not only are the return figures excellent (18.36% vs. 3.17% Annualized Return), but equally if not more significant is the fact that volatility of returns is lower (11.68% vs. 14.38% Annualized Standard Deviation).  Essentially, the S&P 500 has experienced excess returns with less risk when the model issues a buy signal, an ideal time for portfolio managers to increase equity exposure. The model does not imply that the market can not go up without a buy signal, but instead it is an especially good indication of stock market growth in the future.

 120 Model Performance Chart Log Scale

The green sections show the performance of the S&P 500 when the model issues a buy signal.

None of the information or opinions expressed within this website shall constitute an offer to sell or solicitation or an offer to buy any securities. Pring Turner Capital Group does not guarantee the suitability, accuracy, or completeness of any content or links provided on this site. No information should be interpreted to imply that past results or performance is an indication of future performance. Use of information is at the readers sole risk and Pring Turner Capital Group will have no responsibility or liability under any subject matter on this website.

Jim Kopas Investments

Five Simple Rules for Lifelong Success

September 2nd, 2009

Have you ever wondered what separates successful individuals from everyone else? For years I pondered this very question and concluded that there are thousands of characteristics that successful people share, (hardworking, responsible, quick-thinking, etc…).  Unfortunately for me, simply knowing these characteristics did not teach me how to become successful. Luckily, Professor Randy Bambrough introduced me to Five Simple Rules for Lifelong Success. These rules provide a basic blueprint that everyone can follow in their ongoing pursuit for lifelong success.                   

#1 – Always be on time.

#2 – Always do what you say.

#3 – Always finish what you start.

#4 – Always say please and thank you.

#5 – Always give your greatest effort.

After initially reading these rules they appear to be fairly obvious, however you would be surprised how many people fail to live by them. Since I incorporated the rules into my life I have seen very promising results.  Not only am I perceived a success by my peers but I believe that I am successful.  Only time will tell if I am successful in life, but I am confident that with these rules in place I am headed in the right direction. I hope these rules have been insightful and I wish you the best of luck in your ongoing pursuit of success!

Jim Kopas General